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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. Any disruption of service at this facility could harm our business… We currently intend to add a second data center facility in 2008, the primary purpose of which is to add capacity.

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The Fundraising Market Two Quarters into COVID

Tom Tunguz

We reviewed the data in May and compared it to the effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on startup fundraising. As a reminder, 2008 saw a 40% reduction in venture dollars invested in startups. These corrections match 2008. It took about six to eight quarters to return to normalcy. But the patterns this time are different.

Marketing 364
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The Fifth SaaS Correction

Tom Tunguz

Also, 2014 to 2016 saw a 57% reduction in multiples and of course after 2008. Cloud companies' fast growth multiplied by an appreciation in multiples has pushed valuations higher since 2014. Since 2016, public software has witnessed four corrections. Today, we’re in the midst of the fifth. What a growth investor ought to expect.

SaaS 361
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Redpoint: SaaS Companies Are Now Worth Less Than Their Historical Norms

SaaStr

I like it because it models out two scenarios — one if the current downturn is like 2008, another if it’s like 2000. Even with just draw-dropping growth from SaaS and Cloud leaders. Redpoint looks at What If this downturn is like 2008, or even 2000. Personally, I think it this contraction be less severe than either.

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Clouded Judgement 9.27.24 - The Foundation of Foundation Models

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Foundation Models Are to AI what S3 was to the Public Cloud Many people look at 2006 as the birth of the public cloud - the year Amazon launched AWS. Follow along to stay up to date! However, a couple things happened.

Cloud 176
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The Publicly Traded Company Worth 250x More in 10 Years

Tom Tunguz

Ten years ago, Nvidia’s market cap hovered around $4b, down from its previous high of $13b in 2008. Now, cloud companies, major B2B & B2C software companies’ appetite for GPUs has put the Data Center segment on a hypergrowth trajectory. In a decade, the business increased in value about 250x, compounding at about 74%.

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Clouded Judgement 8.2.24 - Uncertainty Everywhere

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Cloud Giants Report Q2 We also got the Q2 quarters from AWS / Azure / GCP this week! Subscribe now Share Clouded Judgement Leave a comment Follow along to stay up to date! Back then the median software NTM rev multiple was ~6x.

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