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A Look Back at Q1 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). The graph below shows the median net retention going back to 2020.

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Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement

We all know 2020 and 2021 was the year of excessive software buying fueled by ZIRP. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are always some of the first companies to report earnings during earnings season (coming up in 2 weeks), and there’s always a read through for consumption names (meaning people believe there’s a correlation).

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Clouded Judgement 5.3.24 - Hyperscalers Report Q1 + Early Look at Software Reports

Clouded Judgement

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). This is lower than Q1 2020 (right at the onset of Covid) when everyone seemed to guide lower given the unknowns of Covid. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

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Clouded Judgement 10.20.23 - Hyperscaler Q3 Preview

Clouded Judgement

For context on a 10Y at 5% - from 2010 to 2020 the 10Y averaged roughly ~2.5%. Said another way, the 10Y today is double what it averaged from 2010 to 2020. Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If you look at the historical data you’ll see there’s a very clear trendline through the end of 2020. This is the data point shown for Q4 ‘23.

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Snowflake, CrowdStike and SumoLogic: “How to Leverage the Cloud Giants to Scale to 100 Million ARR and Beyond”

SaaStr

What you’ll see in that cloud spend box is actually Gartner’s 2020 estimate for infrastructure as a service spending for companies, which was $50 billion. And IDG just recently released the 2020 Cloud Computing Survey that showed over one third of IT budgets are spent on cloud computing technologies.

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Clouded Judgement 5.26.23

Clouded Judgement

Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. In 2020 and 2021, it was growth at all costs and the mentality was let it rip. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

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