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And realistically, most won’t have the metrics to pull off another round. At a practical level though, the headlines in 2024 may actually look much worse than 2023 for startup failures. So many were able to cut the burn and stretch their cash through 2023. And 38% have 12 or less months of runway left.
However, if we rewind the clock to a year ago, the budget flush at the end of 2023 felt stronger than most years. Selling software remained challenging in 2023 - despite budgets starting to grow again. As a result, software vendors often see an uptick in revenue and bookings during these periods. The macro has only gotten stronger.
I’m watching public company earnings to identify early trends in the software market to inform startups’ plans for 2023. Turning to our customer metrics in the fourth quarter. Yesterday, Cloudflare announced earnings. I’m adding Cloudflare to the list of tracked companies for this series. Channel sales have become stronger.
Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.
Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. A big reason for that was the guides for the full year 2023 we saw.
Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. As I’ve talked about before, the big risk for 2023 are fundamentals - are forward estimates too high? This brings me back to AWS / Azure downgrades. Follow along to stay up to date!
After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.
Generative AI took the consumer landscape by storm in 2023, reaching over a billion dollars of consumer spend 1 in record time. In 2023, the average spend across foundation model APIs, self-hosting, and fine-tuning models was $7M across the dozens of companies we spoke to. Budgets for generative AI are skyrocketing.
.” As growth starts to slow, it gets harder and harder to justify using revenue multiples as a primary valuation metric. And when this happens, growth companies transition to more of a value based valuation metric (FCF or PE). I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.
Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against.
A 2023 recession feels less likely, with 2024 being the more realistic timing if we do in fact get to a deeper recession. From the S&P to software, consensus was 2023 estimates were too high, and set to fall meaningfully. Let’s imagine a world where we don’t have a recession in 2023. The market was offsides.
Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. My hope is that this analysis can provide startup entrepreneurs with a framework for how to manage their businesses around SaaS metrics (e.g., This metric is more self-explanatory, so I won’t go into detail.
Summers","date":"Sun Feb 12 21:48:44 +0000 2023","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":26,"like_count":158,"expanded_url":{"url":"[link] Sees ‘Turbulent’ Time","description":"Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H.
If next quarter we get similar commentary that Azure gave us this quarter (“still a couple quarters away” without any specific guidance), then we may see market loose a little patience. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs).
After all, the real headwinds to software started in the Q3 / Q4 2022 timeline, so by Q3 / Q4 2023 we’d start lapping those tough periods. Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). It’s actually the complete opposite - there will be more deceleration in Q4 (according to guides).
This will help you unpack the ‘why’ behind customer behavior, monitor important metrics and progress toward KPIs, and most importantly, make data-driven decisions rather than rely on guesswork. Data warehouse – Microsoft Azure Data warehouses are large repositories consolidating data from multiple channels.
If B2C rebounded back in 2023, that means 2025 might be a little easier for a lot of folks in classic B2B. You can see the growth on the platform side with Azure, Google, and AWS and how much it’s accelerating in AI. What this graph shows is that there is no downturn in the mobile economy. It’s a rocket ship.
Typical data lake storage solutions include AWS S3, Azure Data Lake Storage (ADLS), Google Cloud Storage (GCS) or Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS). The warehouse is then optimized for efficient access (typically through SQL) to that data, with a number of other properties layered in (like governance, access, security, etc).
If you are wondering how actionable analytics can help you boost product growth in 2023, this post is for you! After collecting data, diagnostic analytics uses data mining to interpret the metrics and make sense of the “why” behind them. Let’s get started.
With our new destinations, you can send your clean and tidy revenue data to be combined with other data points in: Amazon S3, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure , Snowflake, Amazon Redshift, or Google BigQuery. Net and Gross MRR Retention Rates are often considered the most important metrics and SaaS. Try it out. .
Google Cloud , Azure, and GitLab, all tied directly or indirectly to AI, are seeing massive acceleration. But Google Cloud, Azure, and GitLab are all benefiting and on fire. Automation Everywhere Through 2023, SaaS was mostly workflow and dashboards. Security and compliance are strong, with Wiz turning down billions from Google.
Google announced that the Universal Analytics service, which currently finds use in many businesses, will be deprecated on October 1, 2023. It’s a similar service, but there are some significant changes – for example, GA4 measures slightly different metrics, like active users instead of total users, and more. What is FullSession?
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