Remove 2023 Remove GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Remove Metrics
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Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement

However, if we rewind the clock to a year ago, the budget flush at the end of 2023 felt stronger than most years. Selling software remained challenging in 2023 - despite budgets starting to grow again. All of that could create a good setup for software in Q4! This concept is nothing new and has been going on for a while.

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions.

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Clouded Judgement 5.31.24 - Software Sentiment Crumbles

Clouded Judgement

.” As growth starts to slow, it gets harder and harder to justify using revenue multiples as a primary valuation metric. And when this happens, growth companies transition to more of a value based valuation metric (FCF or PE). The “power of the bundle / platform” is very real.

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Clouded Judgement 8.11.23 - Datadog Consumption Trends

Clouded Judgement

The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). In summary, I don’t expect real AI tailwinds to show up in non-hyperscaler businesses in a meaningful way through the rest of 2023. However, it’s not showing up in the data yet.

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Tabular: Turning Your Data Swamp into a Data Lakehouse with Apache Iceberg

Clouded Judgement

Iceberg is open source, and is the leading table format, having been adopted by Snowflake, AWS, GCP, Databricks, Confluent and many others, with contributions and usage coming from some of the largest organizations like Netflix, Apple, LinkedIn, Adobe, Salesforce, Stripe, Pinterest, AirBNB, Expedia and many others.

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