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However, if we rewind the clock to a year ago, the budget flush at the end of 2023 felt stronger than most years. Selling software remained challenging in 2023 - despite budgets starting to grow again. All of that could create a good setup for software in Q4! This concept is nothing new and has been going on for a while.
After a strong finish in Q4, we saw a return to weaker demand conditions in the first quarter, similar to what we experienced in 2023. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).
This can lead to an airpocket of valuation as companies transition to a different primary valuation metric Outside of the hypserscalers (Azure, AWS, GCP) who have uniquely benefited from AI revenue (mainly selling compute), everyone else has largely struggled. The “power of the bundle / platform” is very real.
The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). In summary, I don’t expect real AI tailwinds to show up in non-hyperscaler businesses in a meaningful way through the rest of 2023. However, it’s not showing up in the data yet.
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