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A Look Back at Q1 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). Let’s get into some high level data.

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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

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Clouded Judgement 10.27.23 - Cloud Giants Report Q3 '23

Clouded Judgement

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

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Clouded Judgement 4.28.23

Clouded Judgement

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Azure : Coming into the quarter, a growth rate that would have satisfied the market would have been ~29%. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 5.10.24 - Software Weakness Across the Board

Clouded Judgement

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

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Clouded Judgement 11.3.23 - No Sign of Re-Acceleration in Software

Clouded Judgement

Said another way, I believe that software valuations were holding up so well in the face of a ~5% 10Y because the market expected acceleration and 2024 numbers to come up. Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). And now, it’s unclear when that re-acceleration will happen. And the median guide is 0.4%

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Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement

As we head into the end of 2024 I wonder if a similar, but even stronger, budget flush will play out. It feels to me like we saw the same discipline around procurement in 2024 that we saw in 2023, but now there (could) be more budget up for grabs at the end of the year. The macro has only gotten stronger. Cloudflare is up 17%.

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