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A Look Back at Q1 '24 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). It’s worth pointing out that Azure is a bit above the long term trendline, while AWS is still below (but accelerating up). Some software companies also have seasonality in the “payback.”

Cloud 318
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A Look Back at Q4 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

Cloud 184
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Clouded Judgement 1.27.23

Clouded Judgement

Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 144
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Clouded Judgement 6.9.23 - Recap of Consumption Trends in Q1 '23

Clouded Judgement

Very healthy new business (new customer) acquisition. Usage on Snowflake is driven by queries run on Snowflake Azure: Neutral Tone With Strength in AI Overall I’d characterize Azure’s quarter as a net positive. They guided to 26-27% growth in Azure in Q2 (with 1% coming from AI).

Trends 130
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Clouded Judgement 3.22.24 - ERR vs ARR and the Conundrum of AI Revenue Streams Today

Clouded Judgement

And once a customer has paid back the initial acquisitions costs to acquire it, all future streams of revenue can loosely be described as a cash flow annuity. ” Let’s look at consumption revenue - this is also not technically recurring! It’s probably better described as re-occurring vs recurring.

AI 190
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Clouded Judgement 11.3.23 - No Sign of Re-Acceleration in Software

Clouded Judgement

Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). Namely, two large customers caused a huge issue (New Relic account growing very slowly post their acquisition, and a gaming company going back on prem - which I’m guessing means going to self managed Kafka?). All the headwinds that have persisted continue to persist.

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A Look Back at Q1 '23 Public Cloud Software Earnings

Clouded Judgement

On the Microsoft earnings call they said (related to Azure): “But at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further. At $200M+ ARR, businesses have built up a substantial base of recurring revenue streams that have already paid back their initial CAC. My interpretation is we’re in the bottoming phase.

Cloud 167