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GCP data is a bit more noisy as they don’t disclose GCP itself, but rather Google Cloud which includes GSuite. To calculate implied ARR I take the subscription revenue in a quarter and multiply it by 4. These charts clearly show the ZIRP pull forward, the ensuing cloud cost optimizations, and then the recovery.
Subscribe now Foundation Models Are to AI what S3 was to the Public Cloud Many people look at 2006 as the birth of the public cloud - the year Amazon launched AWS. Microsoft launched Azure in 2010, and Google launched GCP to the public in 2011 (they launched a preview of Google App Engine in 2008, but made it publicly available in 2011).
When I think about the monetization of AI (and which “layers” monetize first) I’ve always thought it would follow the below order, with each layer lagging the one that comes before it. Model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc as companies start building out AI). 2024 will be the year of AI applications!
This can lead to an airpocket of valuation as companies transition to a different primary valuation metric Outside of the hypserscalers (Azure, AWS, GCP) who have uniquely benefited from AI revenue (mainly selling compute), everyone else has largely struggled. Coming in to Q1 there was broader optimism. Q4’s were generally good!
So far - you’re either tied to AI tailwinds, or it’s rough out there. And in the public universe, it’s really only been the hyperscalers who’ve benefited from AI. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).
Cloud Giants Report Q2 We also got the Q2 quarters from AWS / Azure / GCP this week! Our expectation, obviously again, is that we are going to significantly increase our investments in AI infrastructure next year, and we'll give further guidance as appropriate.”
And everyone hoping for AI acceleration will need to wait. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). In summary, I don’t expect real AI tailwinds to show up in non-hyperscaler businesses in a meaningful way through the rest of 2023.
AI = Data + Compute I’ll continue beating this drum, but we got two great quotes from Azure and AWS this week. Satya at Microsoft said “Every AI app starts with data and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever.” This could be a trend of improving buyer dynamics?
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