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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. By the time they got their competitor up and off the ground, that first mover may already be at $100m+ in revenue and at escape velocity. Follow along to stay up to date!

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Clouded Judgement 12.1.23 - Net New ARR Starts to Rebound + AWS ReInvent Recap

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. ” AWS fully embracing the breadth over depth approach. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.” Top 5 Median: 16.6x

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The Capex Conquest in the Cloud

Tom Tunguz

Aside from the overall growth of these clouds increasing, the massive investment in CapEx data centers, power plants, and GPUs is stunning. Here are some highlights from Amazon’s earnings : “We see considerable momentum on the AI front where we’ve accumulated a multibillion-dollar revenue run rate already.”

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Predicting Cloud Growth Rates for 2023

Tom Tunguz

A year ago, AWS, GCP, & Azure averaged 44% annual growth. Amazon: We expect [customer] optimization efforts will continue to be a headwind to AWS growth in at least the next couple of quarters. So So far in the first month of the year, AWS year-over-year revenue growth is in the mid-teens.

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Cloud Stocks May Be Down. But the Cloud Remains on Fire. That Matters More.

SaaStr

But at end of the day, in Cloud, the question is if CIO and related spend will slow down. So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So there’s much angst and even panic with so many SaaS and Cloud public stocks down 50% or more from their peaks. They are the Cloud. The post Cloud Stocks May Be Down.

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Clouded Judgement 10.11.24 - Budget Flush

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. As a result, software vendors often see an uptick in revenue and bookings during these periods. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date! Subscribe now Budget Flush Coming? Cloudflare is up 17%.

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Clouded Judgement 2.7.25 - "Group + Triage" AI Systems

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Cloud Giants Report Q4 ‘24 We now have the quarterly reports from Amazon, Microsoft and Google. They each have some of the largest cloud businesses in the world in AWS, Azure and Google Cloud respectively.