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Clouded Judgement - 3.28.25 - The New AI Risk Curve

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Data from Stripe (below) shows the speed at which AI native companies are growing compared to SaaS companies. Let’s rewind the clock back to the pre-cloud days. Fast forward to the launch of AWS and the public cloud.

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Shopify Says eCommerce is Back. But AWS Says Cloud Under More Scrutiny.

SaaStr

o this was an interesting week in terms of reading the tea leaves on what’s going on in SaaS, Cloud, the economy, and all that. The Cloud infra side grew nicely, but growth did slow. Second, AWS, Azure and Google Cloud all grew nicely, and are still growing like a weed — but the growth rate slowed.

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Atlassian and AWS Say: “Maybe Worry a Little Bit”

SaaStr

Yet, the Cloud is on fire during Work-and-Do-Everything-Possible-from-Home. Zoom is growing at rates we’ve never seen before in SaaS and Cloud. And Morgan Stanley has predicted Cloud penetration will be pulled forward 5+ years or more. Amazon/AWS and Atlassian both had huge Q2’s.

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Clouded Judgement 12.1.23 - Net New ARR Starts to Rebound + AWS ReInvent Recap

Clouded Judgement

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Subscribe now Amazon ReInvent This week Amazon had their annual AWS ReInvent conference. ” AWS fully embracing the breadth over depth approach. We’re still in the early days of the cloud.”

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Datadog, ZoomInfo, Atlassian, AWS: Epic Growth — But Some Real Headwinds For The First Time

SaaStr

So with the latest batch of earnings out, we can get a sense of where the leaders are in SaaS. Atlassian noted a decline in Free to Paid conversion, but importantly, no decline in demand for their products: Amazon: We’re Seeing Strong But Slowing Growth at AWS to 28%, Albeit at a Stunning $82B Run Rate. More on that here.

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Cloud Stocks May Be Down. But the Cloud Remains on Fire. That Matters More.

SaaStr

But at end of the day, in Cloud, the question is if CIO and related spend will slow down. So follow AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So there’s much angst and even panic with so many SaaS and Cloud public stocks down 50% or more from their peaks. They are the Cloud. For now, they are still on fire.

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Bessemer: $1 Trillion in Cloud Market Cap Lost Year-to-Date

SaaStr

There are many ways to slice-and-dice public market data, but the headline one Bessemer called out is the most visceral I’ve seen: Public SaaS and Cloud companies lost $1 Trillion in market cap so far in 2022. And the number of public SaaS and Cloud decacorns has fallen from 50 to 17. Strange Days, Indeed.

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