Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 11, 2024

The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are always some of the first companies to report earnings during earnings season (coming up in 2 weeks), and there’s always a read through for consumption names (meaning people believe there’s a correlation). Cloudflare is up 17%. Datadog is up 14%. Mongo is up 16%. Snowflake is up 14%.

Cloud 167

Cloud Cost optimization & reporting GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Software Review 167

The Angel VC

MAY 12, 2018

We generate over 90% of our revenue from self-serve channels — users who purchase a subscription through our app or website. As a result, we may be unable to address any retention issues with specific users in a timely manner, which could harm our business.” We “ do not track the retention rate of our individual users”.

AWS 187

AWS Scale Subscription Payment Features 187

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

net retention and CAC payback). It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. Through these interactions, I’ve built up mental benchmarks for metrics on which I place extra emphasis. Is Software Rebounding?

Cloud 184

Cloud Software Azure AWS 184

Clouded Judgement

MAY 3, 2024

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). The most notable change in tone was Andy Jassy talking about AWS. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cost optimization & reporting 190

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Software AWS 190

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Amazon on AWS : “…customers are continuing to shift their focus towards driving innovation and bringing new workloads to the cloud. Azure (excluding Azure AI) continued to decelerate, and while AWS did come in ahead of expectations, it wasn’t a blow out. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cost optimization & reporting 167

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 167

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Subscribe now Foundation Models Are to AI what S3 was to the Public Cloud Many people look at 2006 as the birth of the public cloud - the year Amazon launched AWS. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 176

Cloud GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AWS Azure 176

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

” We saw some green shoots in AWS and a few other consumption names, and overall sentiment seemed more positive. Partly due to larger layoffs, as well as stronger bookings And finally - net retention. Not surprising, net retention continued to fall.

Cloud 176

Cloud Software Review AWS Trends 176

Intercom, Inc.

DECEMBER 31, 2019

The wave of SaaS companies that built themselves on the likes of AWS and Azure have reinforced the pre-eminence of cloud computing. What was perhaps less predictable was the ensuing prevalence of the subscription-based business model. Perhaps nowhere is the impact of the subscription model quite as dramatic as in popular culture.

Payment Solutions 259

Payment Solutions Payment Methods Software SaaS Payments 259

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. That is not new.”

Cost optimization & reporting 157

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 157

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 167

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 167

ChurnZero

JUNE 24, 2022

In our webinar, 2022 SaaS retention benchmarks , SaaS Capital Manager Director Rob Belcher shares the results from their 11th annual B2B SaaS benchmarking survey. You can download the full report for net retention and gross retention benchmarks as well as retention metrics in relation to ACV, growth, size, and more.

Benchmarks 98

Benchmarks Retention Software Review Technical Review 98

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 28, 2022

Hyperscalers Report Quarterly Earnings This week we saw AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google) and Azure (Microsoft) report earnings. Overall, it wasn’t pretty… AWS grew 28% when expectations were 30-31%. Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Cost optimization & reporting 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. This brings me back to AWS / Azure downgrades. This was the worst tone that we’ve heard in years from large AWS/Azure partners, a group that usually expresses different shades of optimism about AWS/Azure growth.”

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Underperforming Technical Team 130

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 22, 2024

Enterprise software businesses strive for 90-95% gross retention (generally the percent of revenue that sticks with you vs churns altogether), with net expansion in the 120%+ range (the aggregate change in expansion - contraction - churned revenue). Namely, retention!! The biggest culprit is describing non recurring revenue as ARR.

AI 190

AI Cloud Revenue Technical Advisors 190

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 28, 2023

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Then AWS appeared to add fuel to that hope before giving us a huge rug pull. After all, they had a lot of AI tailwinds, and benefited tremendously from consolidation (without a headwind of a larger base of smaller startups, like AWS).

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS AI Search 130

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

” These are two quotes about AWS on the Amazon earnings call. AWS grew 16% in Q1, but called out growth in April (first month of Q2) was 11%. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Cost optimization & reporting 130

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 2, 2024

Cloud Giants Report Q2 We also got the Q2 quarters from AWS / Azure / GCP this week! Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 157

Cloud Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AWS 157

ChurnZero

AUGUST 11, 2020

Did you know that 60% of SaaS companies reported a negative impact on customer retention and upsell deals due to the pandemic? Customer retention, along with new customer acquisition, has been challenging for most companies when the pandemic hit. And, as you know, a better customer experience leads to better customer retention.

Retention 97

Retention Strategy Underperforming Technical Team Software Review 97

Clouded Judgement

MAY 31, 2024

This can lead to an airpocket of valuation as companies transition to a different primary valuation metric Outside of the hypserscalers (Azure, AWS, GCP) who have uniquely benefited from AI revenue (mainly selling compute), everyone else has largely struggled. Coming in to Q1 there was broader optimism. Q4’s were generally good!

Cloud 184

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 184

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

All 3 (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw positive reacceleration Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 167

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). On AWS, in their Q4 earnings call they said AWS was growing “mid teens” in January (down from 20% in Q4). Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

SaaStr

JULY 1, 2020

I’m looking at it and I’m like, “Who’s got the Wall Street Journal subscription? Because sales folks want to close the biggest deal and they may not like downgrades or logo retention, how are you thinking about this issue? For us, it’s been, “Migrate things that you have on invoice over to card.”

Merchant Services 262

Merchant Services Scale Sales Recruiting Sales 262

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 9, 2023

Expansion revenue is still declining (we see this in falling net retention rates), but gross retention remains strong. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). New customer growth seems to be picking up.

Trends 130

Trends Cloud Azure AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 16, 2024

” From AWS (paraphrased): They said they expect the reaccleration they saw in Q4 to continue into 2024 2024 Estimate Updates One important metric I’m tracking this quarter is the change in 2024 estimates pre / post earnings. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.

Cloud 167

Cloud AWS Subscription Payment Features 167

OpenView Labs

FEBRUARY 9, 2021

This is why we’re seeing more and more SaaS companies—Datadog, Twilio, AWS, Snowflake, and Stripe, to name a few—find success with product led growth paired with usage-based pricing. But growing with a usage-model is not as straightforward as traditional subscription SaaS. Then they tell their boss what to buy.

Scale 98

Scale Pricing Scaling AWS 98

SaaStr

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

Then, we moved to a more customer-friendly model with SaaS and subscription-based pricing. What’s evolved over the years and is driven by hyper-scalers like Google Azure, AWS, Twilio, and Stripe is the consumption-based model. In this approach, you’re paying a lot to reps for retention.

Compensation 179

Compensation Sales Azure AWS 179

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP as companies look for cloud GPUs who aren’t building out their own data centers) Infra (Data layer, orchestration, monitoring, ops, etc) Durable Applications We’ve clearly well underway of the first 3 layers monetizing. Model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc as companies start building out AI).

Cloud 190

Cloud Artificial Intelligence GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 190

Clouded Judgement

JULY 28, 2023

AI = Data + Compute I’ll continue beating this drum, but we got two great quotes from Azure and AWS this week. ” Then at AWS Summit they called out “Your data is your differentiator when it comes to Generative AI.” AWS reports next week. ” Data is more important than ever! So what did we learn?

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

JULY 26, 2024

I asked ChatGPT how many price changes AWS has made to S3 since it’s inception in 2006, and the answer it gave me was 65. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Absent the Llama 3.1 release, would this feature have been made free?

Cloud 144

Cloud Technical Review Artificial Intelligence Software Review 144

User Pilot

APRIL 30, 2024

Appcues enhances user onboarding, adoption , and retention with targeted walkthroughs, in-app messaging, and feature adoption tools. Quickbooks and Xero are accounting SaaS products that help you send invoices, track expenses, and process payroll. You don’t handle maintenance or updates. What are the benefits of the SaaS model?

SaaS Payments 104

SaaS Payments Payment Methods Payment Services Payment Solutions 104

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

The good news is gross retention (ie churn) stayed constant. The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs). Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

AWS growth seems to be re-accelerating, and qualitative feedback from a number of companies in Q2 (especially those with July quarter ends) suggested new customer bookings conversations were picking up. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4).

Software Review 130

Software Review Cloud Software AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

In the short term, enjoy the ride as the chase continues 😊 Kind of related to all of this - we now have seen the Q4’s from AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Lots of deceleration in growth.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130

SaaStr

JUNE 1, 2021

I’m going to skip by my life story, and how I grew up as a small child in India, and how the dusty streets influenced my take on unit economics, and SaaS subscription models. I’m going to talk about retention. We’ll talk about retention. We all know retention is important. Here’s the mistake.

Part-Time VPE 293

Part-Time VPE Technical Cofounder CTO Hire New CTO 293

OPEXEngine

JUNE 11, 2020

You hear the terms SaaS, subscription, term licenses and perpetual license software tossed around frequently. We sometimes hear companies call themselves “SaaS” companies, because they sell subscriptions, but they do not host software. The product is hosted by the vendor or a 3 rd party (like AWS).

SaaS Payments 52

SaaS Payments Payment Solutions Subscription Payment Features 52

Clouded Judgement

MARCH 31, 2023

The majority of COGS (revenue less COGS = gross profit) fall in hosting costs (ie AWS), and some customer support. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only.

Cloud 130

Cloud Sales Hiring AI Headcount 130

OPEXEngine

DECEMBER 7, 2021

The pricing model, which leads to increases or decreases in revenue based on how much customers engage with a service, has been gaining on the more traditional subscription model as the main way SaaS companies make money. It has tended to be used most in infrastructure platforms, like AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. Enterprise companies.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Subscription Pricing Venture Capital 52