Clouded Judgement

MARCH 22, 2024

Subscribe now ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) vs ERR (Experimental Runrate Revenue) ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is one of the most popular SaaS (Non-GAAP) metrics. Many investors laugh (and some rightly so) at the fact that software companies’ valuations are often described as a multiple of revenue.

AI 190

AI Cloud Revenue Technical Advisors 190

Clouded Judgement

MAY 3, 2024

We now have results from the three hypersclaers (AWS / Azure / GCP). Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cost optimization & reporting 190

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Software Azure 190

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Subscribe now Cloud Giants Report Q3 ‘23 Not a great signal for software this week from the Cloud Giants (AWS, Azure and Google Cloud)…After Q2 (3 months ago), the tone from the Cloud Giants around optimizations was largely: optimizations have started to ease, and net new workloads have picked up. Staggering scale already.

Cost optimization & reporting 157

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 157

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

” Microsoft on Azure : “And I think last quarter, we said one, we are going to continue to have these cycles where people will build new workloads. They also are seeing AI revenue (largely compute) show up sooner than anyone else. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Top 5 Median: 17.2x

Cost optimization & reporting 167

Cost optimization & reporting Cloud Azure AWS 167

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 11, 2024

It looks at the YoY dollar change in quarterly revenue from the hyperscalers (just looking at Azure / AWS because the data goes back further) going back a few years. If we break this down and look at Azure and AWS independently (graphs below), you’ll see how the AWS “swings” were a lot more volatile.

Cloud 184

Cloud Software Azure AWS 184

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Hyperscaler Preview Next week Amazon, Microsoft and Google report earnings and we’ll see Q3 data for AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Office 365 Copilot, for example, doesn’t go live until November and we most likely won’t see meaningful revenue from it until next year. Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.7x

Cloud 167

Cloud Azure AWS Software Review 167

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 2, 2024

Cloud Giants Report Q2 We also got the Q2 quarters from AWS / Azure / GCP this week! Quarterly Reports Summary Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement Update on Multiples SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Cloud 157

Cloud Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AWS 157

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 6, 2023

Cloud Downgrades This week UBS came out with a couple research reports citing concerns in AWS / Azure growth. This brings me back to AWS / Azure downgrades. This was the worst tone that we’ve heard in years from large AWS/Azure partners, a group that usually expresses different shades of optimism about AWS/Azure growth.”

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Underperforming Technical Team 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 28, 2023

AWS (Amazon), Azure (Microsoft), and Google Cloud (Google) all reported this week. Azure reported on Tuesday and gave us that glimmer of hope. Azure : Coming into the quarter, a growth rate that would have satisfied the market would have been ~29%. Azure came in at 31% (constant currency). Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS AI Search 130

Clouded Judgement

JANUARY 27, 2023

Azure (Microsoft) Quarter The week the first of the cloud giants reported - Azure. Early Look at 2023 Guides Given the Azure weakness reported on Tuesday, all software tumbled Wednesday morning with most names down 5-10%. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Follow along to stay up to date!

Cloud 144

Cloud Azure Pricing Payment Features 144

Clouded Judgement

OCTOBER 28, 2022

Hyperscalers Report Quarterly Earnings This week we saw AWS (Amazon), GCP (Google) and Azure (Microsoft) report earnings. At the same time, Azure came in below expectations. Azure called out an incremental $800m of costs expected throughout the year (they just finished their Fiscal Q1). Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.2x

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Cost optimization & reporting 130

Clouded Judgement

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Microsoft launched Azure in 2010, and Google launched GCP to the public in 2011 (they launched a preview of Google App Engine in 2008, but made it publicly available in 2011). Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. So a company trading at 20x NTM revenue that is projected to grow 100% would be trading at 0.2x.

Cloud 176

Cloud GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AWS Azure 176

SaaStr

MARCH 31, 2022

Azure’s marketplace has over 4 million monthly visitors. million subscriptions transacted and Google’s marketplace has seen 3X growth in SaaS sales. And a lot of this depends on your go to market, but we are selling jointly with the AWS and the Azure, et cetera sellers too. AWS’s marketplace has seen 1.5

Scale 262

Scale Marketplace as a Service Cloud SaaS Payments 262

Clouded Judgement

MAY 10, 2024

And no one raised full year guide >2% The median “beat” (Q1 revenue over Q1 consensus estimates) was 1.5%, which is the lowest it’s been in the last 4 years Overall, it’s been a TOUGH quarter for software companies. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.7x

Cloud 167

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) Azure 167

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 4, 2023

You can see more detail about their net new ARR added each quarter below Azure Growth came in at 27%, and guided to 25-26% growth for Q3. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Top 5 Median: 16.1x

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Cost optimization & reporting 130

Baremetrics

JULY 8, 2021

MetricFire offers five subscription tiers according to the needs of different organization types. Stripe is the leading payment processing service for SaaS and subscription businesses. As a workaround, Langston would create dummy accounts in Stripe and link those to the incorrectly recorded payments.

Payment Services 105

Payment Services Payment Solutions Payments SaaS Payments 105

Clouded Judgement

MAY 31, 2024

” As growth starts to slow, it gets harder and harder to justify using revenue multiples as a primary valuation metric. Any kind of inference really can rack up bills quickly (see growth in hyperscaler revenue…), and AI talent isn’t cheap. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework.

Cloud 184

Cloud Software GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 184

Clouded Judgement

JULY 28, 2023

AI = Data + Compute I’ll continue beating this drum, but we got two great quotes from Azure and AWS this week. This week we had two of the hypserscalers report (Microsoft / Azure and Google / GCP), and everyone was eager to see their results. The bars represent the YoY revenue growth, and the yellow line is the stock price.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 9, 2023

Expansion revenue is still declining (we see this in falling net retention rates), but gross retention remains strong. Usage on Snowflake is driven by queries run on Snowflake Azure: Neutral Tone With Strength in AI Overall I’d characterize Azure’s quarter as a net positive. Overall Stats: Overall Median: 5.7x

Trends 130

Trends Cloud Azure AWS 130

Clouded Judgement

APRIL 21, 2023

Next week we get all 3 hyperscalers reporting (AWS from Amazon, Azure from Microsoft, and GCP from Google). Let’s double click on Azure. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP as companies look for cloud GPUs who aren’t building out their own data centers) Infra (Data layer, orchestration, monitoring, ops, etc) Durable Applications We’ve clearly well underway of the first 3 layers monetizing. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Bucketed by Growth.

Cloud 190

Cloud Artificial Intelligence GCP(Google Cloud Platform) AI 190

Clouded Judgement

MAY 26, 2023

Azure / Confluent / Datadog reported a few weeks back (they all had March quarter ends), and their commentary suggested the worst was behind us. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. Top 5 Median: 13.0x

Cloud 144

Cloud Azure Trends Forecasting 144

Clouded Judgement

AUGUST 11, 2023

While the overall median revenue multiple of the software universe is ~6x (which is ~25% below the long term average of ~8x), high growth software is currently trading at a premium to it’s long term average (9.4x The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) are seeing some uptick, but this is largely from selling compute (ie cloud GPUs).

Cloud 130

Cloud Trends Azure GCP(Google Cloud Platform) 130

Clouded Judgement

JUNE 20, 2023

On the Microsoft earnings call they said (related to Azure): “But at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further. Beating consensus revenue estimates is the first aspect of a successful quarter. The formula to calculate this is: (Q1 ’23 revenue) / (Q1 ’22 revenue) - 1.

Cloud 167

Cloud Software Benchmarks Scale 167

Clouded Judgement

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Pure revenue multiples are trading at a 31% discount to their long term average (5.4x Maybe with the exception of hyperscalers (particularly Azure). 4x NTM revenue for Confluent sounds super cheap. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. That’s a huge move up for the index! So what’s going on??

Software Review 167

Software Review Cloud Software Azure 167

SaaStr

JUNE 26, 2024

Many people are doing great, even private companies like Netskope, which are growing over 30% at $500M in revenue. Canva is growing at 40% and has a revenue of $2.3B. Klaviyo is growing 42% at $750M, coming up on a billion in revenue, and number one in the Shopify ecosystem. Or Scale AI securing $1B. What’s going on here?

CTO Hire 147

CTO Hire AI Venture Capital Sales Hiring 147

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

In the short term, enjoy the ride as the chase continues 😊 Kind of related to all of this - we now have seen the Q4’s from AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure AWS Generative AI 130

Clouded Judgement

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

As you can tell, there’s a BIG drop-off projected in 2023 Like Azure, they called for a big slowdown of consumption trends in the month of December. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.

Cloud 130

Cloud Azure Payment Features Subscription 130

IT World

APRIL 26, 2023

Increased revenue across Microsoft’s cloud computing, Office software, and server segments have helped the tech giant see its net income reach $18.3 Server products and cloud services both saw revenue growth of 17%, with Azure revenue up 27%, while Office commercial products and cloud services revenue also grew by 13% this quarter.

Cloud 75

Cloud Azure Payment Features Subscription 75

OpenView Labs

FEBRUARY 9, 2021

But growing with a usage-model is not as straightforward as traditional subscription SaaS. Though it was pioneered in the infrastructure layer (think: AWS and Azure), it’s becoming increasingly popular for API-based products and application software. Consumption-based revenue isn’t as predictable as subscription-based revenue.

Scale 98

Scale Pricing Scaling AWS 98

OPEXEngine

DECEMBER 7, 2021

The pricing model, which leads to increases or decreases in revenue based on how much customers engage with a service, has been gaining on the more traditional subscription model as the main way SaaS companies make money. It has tended to be used most in infrastructure platforms, like AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Subscription Pricing Venture Capital 52

Stax

APRIL 18, 2024

Independent Software Vendors (ISVs) and Software-as-a-Service Providers (SaaS) operate within the same market, thus creating a push-and-pull revenue dynamic. SaaS companies deliver software applications over the internet on a subscription basis, simplifying access and management for users. What are SaaS companies?

Outsourcing Services 88

Outsourcing Services SaaS Payments Payment Services Payment Methods 88

Blulogix

OCTOBER 11, 2023

The ability to bill clients based on their actual consumption of services not only maximizes revenue but also simplifies operations. Cloud Service Providers: Integrate data from popular cloud providers like AWS , Azure, or Google Cloud to track resource consumption and costs. Generate immediate invoices.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Management Azure AWS 52

Chart Mogul

APRIL 7, 2022

Data editing tools make it possible to attain perfect accuracy from your billing data, and consequently, your subscription analytics. Grow your recurring revenue with ChartMogul. Growing a subscription business is hard work. Both can calculate MRR, churn, and ARPA – but only one can act as a hub of revenue data.

Payment Features 52

Payment Features Systems Review Churn Azure 52

Blulogix

NOVEMBER 8, 2023

Traditional pricing models, such as fixed subscriptions and one-time purchases, no longer align with the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of this sector. Subscription Billing The Evolution of Pricing Models in the Technology Industry The technology industry has undergone significant transformations in recent years.

Technology 52

Technology Pricing Payment Features Subscription 52

Chart Mogul

JULY 7, 2022

The new destinations allow you to combine your subscription and revenue data from ChartMogul with other data sets like product usage, customer data, and user feedback. Analyze your data in aggregate to understand your business and grow revenue. Export subscription data directly into your data warehouse.

Data 52

Data Azure Payment Features Subscription 52

Chart Mogul

JUNE 16, 2022

Customer data is spread across multiple platforms: CRM, communication, billing, and subscription analytics. Now you can send revenue and subscription data associated with your customer in ChartMogul directly to Intercom. You can use the `subscription status` from ChartMogul to build a segment in Intercom.

Payments 52

Payments Data Azure Payment Methods 52