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How Will a Venture Capital Recovery Feel? Observations from 2008

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, I had just become a venture capitalist. What will a venture capital turnaround feel like? Will it be gradual or sudden? What will change the sentiment in the market? Three months later, Lehman fell & the Global Financial Crisis started.

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Not dead yet: Windows Server 2008 users have options

IT World

Windows Server 2008 has reached end of life, which typically means upgrading to a newer version. If you still have workloads running on Windows Server 2008, you’re not alone. But CIOs have options beyond updating to a more recent iteration of Windows server, including staying put or migrating to the cloud.

Cloud 56
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Product-Market Fit in Different Capital Environments

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, tightfistedness dominated the market. Today, a story is sufficient to raise a 2008-sized Series B. Given how much investors prefer faster growth rates and the massive surge in venture fund size, I don’t expect the ramen and ping-pong days of 2008 to return anytime soon. In my notebook, I sketched this 2x2.

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What Could the Venture Market Look Like in the Coronavirus Era

Tom Tunguz

The most recent event to use as an analogy is the 2008 financial crisis. In 2008, I had just joined the venture industry, and then Lehman fell. That grew to about $5B per quarter in 2007 and early 2008. Seed investments suffered a 50% fall in Q3 2008, but the market came right back in Q4 and continued to increase in volume.

Marketing 318
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ChatGPT & Taylor Swift

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, after the iPhone app store launched, we asked each other, is there an app for that? Millions of people want to try new products, all at once, to answer the question : how could AI help me with my email, my homework, my music creation, my graphic design, my data analysis, my plumbing business? Platform shifts arouse curiosity.

ChatGPT 346
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The Fundraising Market Two Quarters into COVID

Tom Tunguz

We reviewed the data in May and compared it to the effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on startup fundraising. As a reminder, 2008 saw a 40% reduction in venture dollars invested in startups. These corrections match 2008. It took about six to eight quarters to return to normalcy. But the patterns this time are different.

Marketing 363
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Redpoint: SaaS Companies Are Now Worth Less Than Their Historical Norms

SaaStr

I like it because it models out two scenarios — one if the current downturn is like 2008, another if it’s like 2000. Redpoint looks at What If this downturn is like 2008, or even 2000. The bounceback was quicker and less severe in 2008, but both took … a long time. Yes, interest rates, inflation etc.

SaaS 230