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How Will a Venture Capital Recovery Feel? Observations from 2008

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, I had just become a venture capitalist. What will a venture capital turnaround feel like? Will it be gradual or sudden? What will change the sentiment in the market? Three months later, Lehman fell & the Global Financial Crisis started.

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The Fundraising Market Two Quarters into COVID

Tom Tunguz

We reviewed the data in May and compared it to the effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on startup fundraising. As a reminder, 2008 saw a 40% reduction in venture dollars invested in startups. These corrections match 2008. It took about six to eight quarters to return to normalcy. But the patterns this time are different.

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What Could the Venture Market Look Like in the Coronavirus Era

Tom Tunguz

The most recent event to use as an analogy is the 2008 financial crisis. In 2008, I had just joined the venture industry, and then Lehman fell. That grew to about $5B per quarter in 2007 and early 2008. Seed investments suffered a 50% fall in Q3 2008, but the market came right back in Q4 and continued to increase in volume.

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Product-Market Fit in Different Capital Environments

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, tightfistedness dominated the market. Today, a story is sufficient to raise a 2008-sized Series B. Given how much investors prefer faster growth rates and the massive surge in venture fund size, I don’t expect the ramen and ping-pong days of 2008 to return anytime soon. In my notebook, I sketched this 2x2.

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ChatGPT & Taylor Swift

Tom Tunguz

In 2008, after the iPhone app store launched, we asked each other, is there an app for that? Millions of people want to try new products, all at once, to answer the question : how could AI help me with my email, my homework, my music creation, my graphic design, my data analysis, my plumbing business? Platform shifts arouse curiosity.

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The SaaS Year of Hell. And Then – Reignition.

SaaStr

I wrote an early SaaStr post way back in 2013 on my “Year of Hell” as a SaaS CEO in 2008. My personal Year of Hell was 2008. In 2013, we were just 2 years removed from the real recovery from ’08-’09. So if you’re in your Year of Hell, you’ll get through it. We’ve all been there. It was a tough year.

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The Fifth SaaS Correction

Tom Tunguz

Also, 2014 to 2016 saw a 57% reduction in multiples and of course after 2008. Since 2016, public software has witnessed four corrections. Today, we’re in the midst of the fifth. But let’s look at the most recent five years.

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