Mean Reversion: When Will Startup Investing Return to Normal?
Tom Tunguz
AUGUST 20, 2023
The post-Covid surge in venture capital pushed valuations & activity to record breaking heights. Since then, investing activity dropped precipitously. When a collapse follows a surge, mean reversion suggests behavior should revert to a reasonable baseline. By building a linear model we can hazard a guess of when that might be. The blue line shows actual Seed, A, & B activity by quarter.
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